HVAC · Heat pump conversion
Dual-Fuel Switchover Calculator
The outdoor temperature where the furnace becomes cheaper than the heat pump, by your actual rates. With the thermal balance point beside it, so a lockout never strands the load.
Enter steady-state (nameplate combustion) efficiency for a strict comparison. AFUE is a seasonal number a few points lower; using it pushes the crossover slightly colder, a disclosed bias toward the heat pump.
Ducted central heat pumps only. The interpolation model (RESNET Addendum 82) excludes ductless and mini-split systems, so do not use it for those. The defaults are example values, not your unit: replace them with the capacity and COP from your AHRI certificate.
This is the safety input: without it the tool cannot show the thermal balance point, the real lockout floor. Do not know your design heat load? Compute it with the BTU / Heat Load Calculator and bring the heating-load number back here.
This crossover answers "which is cheaper", not "which can carry the building." Without your design heat load the tool cannot show the THERMAL balance point, which is the real lockout floor. A switchover that locks the furnace out where the heat pump cannot meet the load leaves a home without heat in a cold snap: stranded load, the safety failure this tool exists to prevent. Enter the design heat load above to see it.
Show the arithmetic
Where this number comes fromIntry Verified
- Calculated from
- 16 CFR 305 App K1 energy constants, AHRI 210/240-2024 rating points, and the RESNET Addendum 82 defrost model. Computed by the dual-fuel engine from the FTC 3,412 Btu/kWh and 100,000 Btu/therm constants and the RESNET defrost model: capacity and power are interpolated separately then divided for COP, and the crossover is where that COP meets the break-even set by your rates. See the full receipt ↓
- Run with
- Electricity0.16 $/kWh
- Backup1.4 $/therm, 95%
- Break-even COP3.18 at 0.16 $/kWh, 1.4 $/therm, 95% efficiency
- Economic crossover39 F
- Checked
- Every figure an Intry calculator computes comes from a locked source module, not hand-typed. 32786 automated checks, one suite for the whole site rather than a per-tool count, re-derive the numbers before each deploy from the tables this site holds, read from the FTC 3,412 Btu/kWh and 100,000 Btu/therm constants and the RESNET defrost model it was computed from. This is our own deterministic gate, not a third-party audit.
- Final say
- The equipment manufacturer's dual-fuel guidance and the building's behavior in a cold snap have the final say. Set the lockout at or above the thermal balance point, not the economic crossover, so a cold snap never strands the load.
Intry Verified · Build D331505 · 2026-10-24
This comparison ignores the gas furnace's own electricity draw (blower and inducer). No primary was sourced for it, so it is declared rather than fabricated; it slightly favors the furnace. (Declared simplification)
No end-to-end validated error bound exists for this composed model (piecewise-linear capacity/power plus the defrost correction) against monitored field data. Treat the crossover as a decision aid, verify against the manufacturer's dual-fuel guidance, and confirm the installed lockouts against the building's behavior in a cold snap. (Disclosed model limit)
The furnace efficiency is treated as a steady-state (instantaneous) figure to match the instantaneous heat-pump COP. If you entered AFUE (a seasonal number, typically a few points lower), the crossover lands slightly colder than reality: a small, disclosed bias toward the heat pump. (10 CFR 430.2 (AFUE is seasonal))
The defrost correction is modeled only as a capacity and efficiency penalty. It does not model how your dual-fuel control behaves DURING a defrost cycle (whether the furnace fires to cover the reversed cycle, and for how long), which no published guidance settles and which can shift the 25 to 40 F economics either way. (Disclosed model limit (defrost control behavior))
The four cases most articles never mention
The arithmetic of a switchover temperature is not hard, and a couple of other sites publish the formula. The value is in the cases that break the formula, and this tool answers all four.
Gas is cheaper at every temperature
At some rate combinations the break-even COP is above the heat pump's COP even at 47 F. The furnace wins the whole season, and the tool says so plainly instead of inventing a crossover.
Electric strips invert the logic
Strips run at COP 1.0, so the heat pump beats them wherever its corrected COP is above 1.0. In the worked strip case the break-even COP is 1.00 and the unit stays above it down to 5 F: run the compressor as low as it safely goes and use strips only for capacity.
Interruptible dual-fuel rates
The utility overrides your lockout during control events and forces the backup on, and the penalty rate can be many times the discounted one. Size the backup for the control event, not just the crossover.
Economic is not thermal (the safety one)
If the economic crossover is colder than the thermal balance point, a lockout there under-heats the building in a cold snap. Stranded load, not fire, is the failure this tool exists to prevent.
Cold-climate reference units
A sample of ducted cold-climate heat pumps from the public-domain EPA ENERGY STAR dataset, pulled and filtered on the date in the source receipt below. Every unit here passes a physical-plausibility check: heating capacity does not rise as temperature falls (47 F at least 17 F at least 5 F). The dataset also publishes an HSPF2 and a 5 F COP but not the COP at 47 or 17 F, so read those from the unit's AHRI certificate (the reference number is listed) and enter them above. These are reference anchors, not an endorsement, and not the full roster.
| Unit | 47°F | 17°F | 5°F | COP 5°F | HSPF2 | AHRI ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosch BOVA-36RTB-M20S | 34,200 | 28,000 | 24,400 | 2.00 | 9.5 | 214771711 |
| Bosch BOVA-60RTB-M20S | 48,000 | 40,000 | 33,600 | 2.00 | 9.5 | 214771732 |
| Bosch BOVA-60HDN1-M15G | 34,200 | 25,000 | 24,000 | 2.00 | 8.5 | 208128245 |
| Carrier 27VPA936A*030* | 31,800 | 31,800 | 26,200 | 2.12 | 9.0 | 217907775 |
| Bryant 249VAN036**AA* | 31,800 | 31,800 | 26,200 | 2.12 | 9.0 | 217912668 |
| Trane 5TWV0X36A1 | 32,200 | 31,400 | 24,800 | 2.10 | 9.7 | 218036367 |
| Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A** | 31,800 | 28,800 | 26,600 | 2.12 | 9.8 | 217476520 |
| Lennox EL18KSLV-036-230A** | 36,000 | 28,800 | 28,400 | 1.90 | 9.0 | 217509778 |
| Rheem RP17AY36AJVC | 34,200 | 32,200 | 31,000 | 2.00 | 9.5 | 218328410 |
| 1HVAC ACIQ-36-HPB | 39,000 | 33,000 | 32,000 | 2.00 | 10.0 | 212394314 |
Capacities in Btu/h. The ENERGY STAR certification mark and logo are deliberately not applied to these listings: these are performance facts from a public-domain dataset, cited by name but published without the certification mark.
Questions
What temperature should I set the dual-fuel switchover to?
There is no universal answer, and that is the whole point. The economic switchover is the outdoor temperature where the heat pump stops being cheaper to run than the furnace, and it moves with your electricity rate, your fuel price, and your furnace efficiency. In the worked example on this page (0.16 $/kWh, 1.40 $/therm gas, 95 percent furnace), the break-even COP is 3.18 and the crossover lands near 39 F with the defrost correction. Change any one of those three prices and the number moves. Enter your own rates and your unit's rated numbers to get yours.
Is the switchover about cost or about capacity?
Both, and they are different temperatures. The economic crossover is where the furnace becomes cheaper to run. The thermal balance point is where the heat pump can no longer meet the building's heat loss at all, no matter the cost. If you set the furnace to take over at the economic crossover but that is colder than the thermal balance point, the heat pump cannot carry the building in the gap and a cold snap leaves the home under-heated. Set the changeover at or above the thermal balance point. Comfort and safety outrank the last few dollars.
My backup is electric strips, not gas. Does this still apply?
The logic inverts. Electric resistance strips run at a COP of 1.0, so the heat pump is cheaper than the strips wherever its COP, defrost included, is above 1.0. Down to that point there is no economic reason to hand hours to the strips: run the compressor at least that low and use the strips only for capacity the heat pump cannot meet. The calculator shows where your unit's corrected COP falls under 1.0, if it does in its rated range. Setting an economic compressor lockout on a strip-backup system is the most common and most expensive mistake in this whole subject.
Why does the calculator show two crossover temperatures?
Because two published standards disagree about defrost. A heat pump loses capacity and spends energy running defrost cycles in cold, damp weather. RESNET/ICC 301 Addendum 82 models that penalty and applies it down to the coldest temperatures; AHRI and DOE apply no defrost penalty below 17 F. The correction is worth several degrees on the crossover, so we show it both ways rather than hide the disagreement behind one number. The RESNET number is the more conservative of the two.
How is the break-even COP calculated?
Break-even COP equals your electricity rate times your furnace efficiency times 100,000, divided by your fuel price times 3,412. Those two constants are the FTC EnergyGuide figures: 1 kWh delivers 3,412 Btu and 1 therm is 100,000 Btu. Above the break-even COP the heat pump delivers heat for less per Btu than the furnace; below it the furnace wins. Because the break-even COP depends on all three of your inputs, it spans a six-to-one range across ordinary US rates, so this tool never shows a break-even COP without the three numbers that produced it.
Do I need my unit's exact rated numbers?
For an accurate crossover, yes: enter the capacity and COP at 47 F and 17 F from the unit's AHRI certificate, and the 5 F point too if it is a certified cold-climate unit. The tool interpolates capacity and power separately and divides for COP, rather than interpolating COP directly, because COP is a curved ratio and interpolating it straight is optimistic in the cold. If you enter a physically impossible set of numbers, such as more capacity at 17 F than at 47 F, the tool refuses rather than fitting a curve to it. About 3 percent of the manufacturer-submitted rows in the public ENERGY STAR data have exactly that impossible shape.
Does this work for a mini-split or ductless system?
No. The interpolation model this tool uses (ANSI/RESNET/ICC 301 Addendum 82) explicitly excludes ductless and multi-split systems, so running it on a mini-split would be applying a model outside its scope. This tool is for ducted central heat pumps. The reference units listed on this page are all ducted split systems for the same reason.
Related tools
Cold-Climate Heat Pump Capacity
Size the capacity curve this switchover reads: what the heat pump can actually deliver at the design temperature.
BTU / Heat Load Calculator
The design heat load that sets the thermal balance point on this page.
Can My Panel Handle It
The electrical side of the conversion: does the panel have room for the heat pump and its backup.
Combustion Air Calculator
When the furnace comes out, the atmospheric water heater left behind may now be short on combustion air. Check the confined-space verdict and opening size under IFGC 304.
Superheat & Subcooling
Commission the heat pump once it is in: verify the charge against the manufacturer's target.
Now size the panel for the heat pump and its backup
A heat pump and its backup are a new big load. Cross to the electrical side to check the service, the circuit, and the wire before the changeout.