Cold Climate Heat Pump Capacity

Cold Climate Heat Pump Capacity at 5F: MAX Heating BTU by Model

What a cold-climate heat pump actually puts out when it gets cold, per model, from the AHRI-certified NEEP ccASHP database. MAX heating capacity at any outdoor temperature, the maintained-% at 5F against both denominators, and a balance-point and backup-heat readout.

Quick answer: the “will it heat my house at 5F” number is the MAX capacity at 5F, not the rated 47F figure. The Mitsubishi P-Series Hyper-Heat (ducted) holds 38,000 BTU/hr at 5F, which is 95% of its 40,000 BTU/hr rated capacity at 47F, and still delivers 30,400 down to -13F. Pick a model below for its full curve, or read the capacity-at-5F chart for all 11.

Capacity, Maintained-% & Balance Point

Pick a model and an outdoor temperature for its interpolated MAX heating capacity. Add your design heat load for the balance point and the backup heat you would need at design.

Intry VerifiedA worked default reading, traceable end to end: what it was calculated from, what it was run with, how it was checked, and who has final say.

38,000 BTU/hr MAX at 5F, 95% of rated
Where this number comes fromIntry Verified
Calculated from
AHRI-certified NEEP ccASHP data (AHRI 211259279)
Run with
  • ModelMitsubishi P-Series Hyper-Heat (ducted)
  • RefrigerantR-410A
  • Outdoor temperature5 F
  • Rated at 47F40,000 BTU/hr
Checked
Every published figure is re-derived from its locked source before any deploy, backed by 2671 automated checks that also guard where each number comes from. A number that drifts from the AHRI-certified NEEP ccASHP data it came from blocks the ship. This is our own deterministic gate, not a third-party audit.
Final say
The manufacturer's engineering data or a Manual-J load calculation by an HVAC pro has final say.
What Intry Verified means

Intry Verified · Build D3D3743 · 2026-07-11


Rated vs MAX, and Why 5F Is the Number

A heat pump is rated at 47F, but nobody runs backup heat at 47F. The number that decides whether a unit can carry a house through a cold snap is the MAX heating capacity at the design temperature, which for most of the country is at or near 5F. Manufacturers publish the 47F rating loudly and the cold-temperature number quietly, if at all, so this page pins every figure to the AHRI-certified NEEP record and always shows the MAX at 5F next to the rated 47F capacity. Below a model's lowest rated row the capacity is held, never extrapolated to a colder number the record does not support.

Every Percentage Carries Its Denominator

“Holds 96% at 5F” is meaningless without saying 96% of what. The Fujitsu AIRSTAGE XLTH (wall ductless) holds 23,200 BTU/hr at 5F. Against its rated 47F capacity of 24,000 that is 96.7%; against its MAX 47F capacity of 36,200 it is 64.1%. Same unit, same 5F output, two honest numbers. This page always publishes both source BTU figures and the chosen denominator. NEEP floors its stored percentage to a whole number; the computed ratio is what you see here.


Capacity by Model Line

The MAX capacity at 5F and the cold floor for each line, pinned to its AHRI certificate. Pick a line for its full curve and balance-point readout.

MAX Capacity at 5F Summary

Rated capacity at 47F and MAX capacity at 5F for every model line, from AHRI-certified NEEP data
Model lineRated 47FMAX 5F% of rated
Mitsubishi P-Series Hyper-Heat (ducted)40,00038,00095%
Mitsubishi M-Series H2i (single-zone ductless)19,00019,000100%
Mitsubishi Smart Multi H2i (multi-zone)54,00047,00087%
Bosch IDS (ducted)34,20021,80063.7%
Bosch IDS Premium24,00016,80070%
Fujitsu AIRSTAGE XLTH (wall ductless)24,00023,20096.7%
Carrier Performance (ducted)31,80026,20082.4%
Daikin Aurora (wall ductless)21,60021,600100%
LG Ceiling / ducted (R-32)40,00036,00090%
Gree FLEXX (ducted, R-32)25,00025,000100%
MRCOOL Universal (ducted DIY)24,00022,00091.7%

Full chart with MAX at 17F, the cold floor, and COP: capacity-at-5F chart. The derived readout explained: balance point and backup heat.


Frequently Asked Questions

How much heating capacity does a heat pump lose at 5F?

It depends entirely on the model, which is why the per-model number matters. A dedicated cold-climate unit like the Mitsubishi P-Series Hyper-Heat (ducted) holds 38,000 BTU/hr at 5F, 95% of its 40,000 BTU/hr rated capacity at 47F. A mainstream unit falls off much harder. The MAX capacity at 5F is the number that answers "will it heat my house," and it is always shown here next to the rated 47F figure.

What is the difference between rated and MAX heating capacity?

Rated capacity is the AHRI-certified capacity at the 47F rating point. MAX capacity is the most the unit can put out at a given outdoor temperature when it ramps up. The "will it heat my house at 5F" answer is the MAX at 5F, so every capacity on this page is labeled RATED or MAX, and the MAX at 5F is shown alongside the rated 47F number so you see both.

Why does the same unit show two different maintained percentages?

Because a percentage means nothing without its denominator. The Fujitsu AIRSTAGE XLTH (wall ductless) holds 23,200 BTU/hr at 5F. Against its rated 47F capacity of 24,000 that is 96.7%; against its MAX 47F capacity of 36,200 it is 64.1%. Both are true. This page always publishes both source BTU numbers and the chosen denominator, never a bare percentage. NEEP floors its stored percentage to a whole number; the computed ratio is shown here.

What is a heat pump balance point?

The balance point is the outdoor temperature where the heat pump's declining MAX-capacity curve crosses your home's rising heat-loss load line. Above it the heat pump covers the whole load; below it you need backup heat. Enter your design heat load and design temperature in the calculator and it reports the balance point plus the backup heat needed at design, as a readout. For example, the Mitsubishi P-Series Hyper-Heat (ducted) against a 45,000 BTU/hr load at 5F balances at 14.3F and needs 7,000 BTU/hr (2.05 kW) of backup at design.

Where does this cold-climate capacity data come from?

Every capacity and COP figure is transcribed from the AHRI-certified NEEP cold-climate air-source heat pump (ccASHP) database, pinned to a specific AHRI certificate for each model, and confirmed against the manufacturer submittal. The interpolated capacity, the maintained percentages, and the balance-point readout are computed from those printed rated points. The manufacturer engineering data or a Manual-J load calculation by an HVAC pro has the final say.


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